Bitcoin Will Thrive Next Year

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In a significant event for the cryptocurrency sector last week, the renowned research institution Messari released its annual report titled "The Crypto Theses 2025". This extensive document not only reflects on the developments in the cryptocurrency industry throughout 2024 but also outlines projected trends for the following year, aiming to provide a thorough analysis and predictions that are essential for stakeholders across the ecosystem.

One of the most anticipated insights from Messari's report is the expectation that Bitcoin (BTC) will continue its maturation as a universal asset, asserting its position in global financeThe report highlights the ongoing appeal of meme coins as speculative vehicles, which are likely to maintain their attraction for users seeking quick gains through trending assets.

The document is structured into two primary sectionsThe first segment delves into the current state of cryptocurrencies, featuring a brief article documenting the conditions of the crypto market in 2024. The second part, titled "Track-Specific Research," offers a retrospective and forward-looking narrative on the major tracks within the cryptocurrency space

However, given the considerable length of the original 190-page report, it's beneficial to distill the essential points, particularly focusing on the forecasts and overviews presented in each subsection.

As we explore the macroeconomic environment, a notable shift in forecasts is observedMany pessimistic outlooks have been dismantled as the U.Seconomy demonstrated unexpected resilienceFor instance, the Federal Reserve successfully implemented interest rate cuts of 50 and 25 basis points in September and November, respectively, signaling a shift to a more accommodating policy position.

The Standard & Poor's 500 Index saw a remarkable increase of approximately 27% over the year, marking one of its strongest annual performances, ranking in the top 20 of historical recordsThe consistency of this upward trajectory underscores the market's confidence in a soft landing for the economy, notwithstanding short-term volatility prompted by geopolitical factors and adjustments related to the unwinding of yen carry trades.

However, the cryptocurrency market still faces its own set of challenges in 2024. It must navigate risks emerging from traditional financial markets while also addressing unique industry setbacks, including pressure from the German government's asset liquidation, the unfolding of the Mt

Gox token distribution, and ongoing scrutiny of TetherAs the market works through these pressures, it has experienced an extended consolidation period lasting eight months, which can only be viewed as a buildup to a potential breakout.

Looking ahead to 2025, the macroeconomic landscape is anticipated to offer robust support for crypto assetsThe Federal Reserve has begun unwinding its stringent policies from the set by 2022, yet has not transitioned to a significant easing stageThis measured approach is expected to foster a stable market environmentHistorically, lower volatility often begets decreased volatility, a trend favorable to the growth of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Crucially, an enhancement in the regulatory environment is on the horizonEven a relatively neutral regulatory stance will likely represent a stark improvement over the stringent regulations of the past four years, alleviating significant concerns among institutional investors considering market entry

This could lead to an influx of additional capital into the market, bolstered by advancements in the stablecoin domainThe bipartisan support for stablecoin regulations is paving the way for constructive legislative developments in 2025.

Moreover, the entry of institutional funds into the cryptocurrency ecosystem has shifted from mere speculation to a palpable realityThe approval of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs represents a watershed moment, granting formal recognition to cryptocurrencies as an asset class and providing both retail and institutional investors with simpler access routesFor example, BlackRock's recent fund, IBIT, shattered records by achieving $3 billion in assets under management within its first month, later surpassing $40 billion in under 200 days, indicating a substantial demand for crypto derivatives among institutional participants.

This trend reflects diversification in institutional engagement, showcasing that traditional financial entities are now exploring various areas, including asset issuance, tokenization, stablecoins, and research

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Initiatives from organizations like Sky (formerly MakerDAO) and BlackRock have led to the creation of on-chain money market funds, exemplified by Ondo Finance’s USDY, which currently boasts an asset size of around $440 million.

The fusion of financial technology into this landscape is also noteworthyFor instance, PayPal's issuance of its stablecoin PYUSD on the Solana blockchain, and Agora’s launch of its stablecoin AUSD across several chains, solidifies the trend towards a more integrated financial architecture underpinned by blockchain technology.

As we project into 2025, the level of institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market is expected to expand furtherWith institutions like BlackRock continuously positioning digital assets for strategic allocation, ETFs are likely to experience sustained inflowsFurthermore, institutions are venturing into numerous verticals to discover innovative opportunities that could enhance cost efficiency, transparency, or payment speed

Major players like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs are ramping up their blockchain platform initiatives while also broadening their product offerings.

This clear shift suggests that institutional investors are beginning to see cryptocurrencies not merely as speculative investment vehicles but more so as potential foundational elements of the financial infrastructure.

Meanwhile, the market dynamics surrounding meme coins remain vibrantDespite accounting for only 3% of the market capitalization among the top 300 cryptocurrencies (excluding stablecoins), meme coins consistently secure 6-7% of trading volume, with recent spikes taking that figure up to 11%. The surge in popularity can be attributed to political-themed meme coins like Jeo Boden, followed by the rise of TikTok meme coins such as Moodeng and Chill Guy, as well as the advent of AI-themed concepts like Truth Terminal's GOAT.

The success of these meme coins can be attributed to two critical factors: surplus capital and sufficient block space

As the overall value of the cryptocurrency market increases, many traders find themselves sitting on substantial liquidity yet lacking high-quality investment opportunitiesFurthermore, high-throughput networks like Solana provide an efficient and low-cost trading environment, which has been particularly beneficial for meme coin transactions.

In the context of these developments, the advancements in trading infrastructure have significantly facilitated the proliferation of meme coins through user-friendly platformsApplications like Pump.fun, Moonshot, and Telegram bots simplify the trading processes for retail traders, with Moonshot notably offering seamless payment options via ApplePay, PayPal, or USDC on Solana, thereby attracting a wave of new retail investors.

Predictions for 2025 suggest that the growth trajectory for meme coins will persist, largely due to several critical components: the infrastructural support from high-throughput chains such as Solana, Base, Injective, Sei, and TON, which facilitate low-cost transactions; ongoing enhancements in user experience through applications that minimize entry barriers and streamline trading processes; and an accommodating macroeconomic climate, since meme coins serve as a speculative outlet attracting users eager for entertainment and profit.

The financing landscape also paints a robust picture for emerging investment themes, with cryptocurrency project funding trends trending upwards compared to 2023. Although total funding figures for startups and protocols have seen a year-on-year decline of approximately 20%—largely influenced by anomalies in the first quarter of 2023—the market has nonetheless witnessed several noteworthy large-scale financing activities.

Some significant examples include Monad Labs raising $225 million in April, indicating sustained investor interest in infrastructure and Layer 1 projects; Story Protocol securing $80 million in Series B funding led by a16z, focused on converting intellectual property into programmable assets; and Sentient obtaining $85 million, led by Thiel's Founders Fund, targeting the development of an open-source AGI platform

Social ventures have also captured investor attention, with Farcaster and Freechat raising $150 million and $80 million, respectively.

Moreover, the burgeoning sectors of AI and decentralized physical infrastructure networks (DePIN) are experiencing dramatic increases in funding—AI projects saw funding surges of about 100% year-on-year, with a 138% increase in funding rounds, while DePIN initiatives recorded an impressive 300% growth in total funding and a 197% rise in round countsProjects like CSX and Beacon within accelerator programs show a clear investment enthusiasm for crossing the streams of crypto and AI.

Besides AI and DePIN, the year 2024 is likely to witness a few emerging investment themes gaining traction, such as decentralized science, which is drawing interest from projects like BIO Protocol and AMINOChainVenture capital in the Asia-Pacific region appears increasingly inclined towards gaming protocols, especially those launching on the TON blockchain

Conversely, NFT and metaverse projects have noticeably diminished in funding share compared to 2021 and 2022. Social projects continue to experiment with various concepts, with efforts from Farcaster, DeSo, and BlueSky receiving funding support, despite historically limited success.

As the cryptocurrency market scales, compelling evidence is emerging regarding user growthRecent reports from Andreessen Horowitz (a16z) reveal that the number of monthly active addresses in the crypto sector has soared to 220 million, a record high reminiscent of early internet adoption phasesWhile these figures may contain duplicate counts (as many users utilize multiple wallets), even filtered estimates suggest there are still 30 to 60 million real monthly active users.

For 2024, significance shifts in user engagement patterns are demonstrated by the success of the Phantom wallet, which has ascended to become the leading wallet in the Solana ecosystem, breaching the top ten of the iOS app store rankings, surpassing well-known applications like WhatsApp and Instagram

The appeal of stablecoins in emerging markets, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, Latin America, and Eastern Europe, has also spurred their adoption, allowing these regions to bypass traditional banking systems by directly utilizing stablecoinsPlatforms such as Yellow Card, Bitso, and Kuna are facilitating this trend through services focused on stablecoin exchange and payment APIs.

The explosion of Telegram Mini-Apps has also been noteworthy, with Notcoin achieving over 2.5 million holders and Hamster Kombat attracting 200 million users and 35 million YouTube subscribersPlatforms like Polymarket have demonstrated practical applications in this growth narrative, adding nearly 1 million accounts and ranking as the second most downloaded iOS news app at one pointSimilarly, platforms like Base and Hyperliquid have transformed CEX user engagement, with Base L2 facilitating free transfers from Coinbase while Hyperliquid offers a high-performance trading experience akin to CEX for perpetual contract traders.

As we look toward 2025, the landscape of the cryptocurrency ecosystem is not merely preparing for widespread adoption—it's already beginning to materialize

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