As Bitcoin approaches a new peak, a remarkable six-month period of consolidation is nearing its end. It feels necessary to share our perspective, especially as it has become clear that these six months have solidified a trend that may last for years. This analysis is drawn from our observations over this period, focusing on the market’s primary and secondary dynamics, and aims to guide our future cryptocurrency asset management strategies. The essence of our discussion can be summarized in one pivotal statement:

Bitcoin has redefined its asset attributes, establishing a new paradigm in which it has transitioned control of pricing power from the old financial powers to new capital, creating an ecosystem centered around Bitcoin as a pivotal asset. This ecosystem channels funds through ETFs and U.S. stocks, utilizing significant players in the stock market, particularly MicroStrategy (MSTR), to inject liquidity into the system, thus initiating what can be termed a Ponzi-like structure fueled by the continuous influx of U.S. dollars.

Bitcoin is shaping up to be the most essential dollar-denominated asset beyond leading U.S. industries like AI, establishing a long-term, low-volatility upward trend.

Conversely, the traditional cryptocurrency market's trend (Altcoins) appears to be increasingly decoupling from Bitcoin, a phenomenon that we expect will gain momentum as time progresses.

Firstly, it is essential to discuss how Bitcoin has completed a critical fundamental transition during its recent consolidation phase. This transition marks an important yet often overlooked development: Bitcoin has found its clear definition as an asset.

This definition could be championed by BlackRock, but it requires acknowledgement from the entire U.S. capital framework to fully take effect. Historically, this has not been anticipated by many. However, ample evidence gathered over the past half-year suggests:

Bitcoin serves as an alternative reserve asset that can hedge against dollar debt risks.

This concise definition represents Bitcoin's most crucial rationale for becoming the center of the future dollar asset ecosystem. The challenges surrounding U.S. debt have turned into the proverbial elephant in the room, becoming a long-standing concern for the U.S. fiscal and monetary system.

In the context of an expanding government, if fiscal policies shift toward increased aggression, we could witness significant fluctuations in U.S. debt and dollar exchange rates over the next three years. We believe the shrinking global influence of the dollar sets the stage for U.S. debt issues to emerge as the most prominent thread in the economic narrative of the decade.

Equally important is whether the aforementioned perspective gains traction among significant investors. In recent months, this is a question that has captured our attention, particularly in the wake of Trump's unexpectedly expansive governmental approach. We have observed numerous prominent hedge fund founders publicly expressing their views. This includes not just Paul Tudor Jones but also established firms like Verde Asset Management, Brevan Howard, Millennium Management, and Schonfeld Strategic Advisors—hedge funds representing traditional wealth are beginning to use Bitcoin as an instrument to hedge against U.S. debt risks.

The emergence of Bitcoin’s new Ponzi-like structure has crystallized over the past six months.

Since the establishment of Bitcoin ETFs led by BlackRock, a new Bitcoin Ponzi model has begun to take shape. This system revolves around ETFs managed under BlackRock's control and MicroStrategy, acting as a perpetual buyer and holder. The core principle hinges on Bitcoin’s low volatility trend, which has been leveraged through the stock price effects of MSTR, positioning Bitcoin as a potential tool for market capitalization management while paving the way for passive buying from future U.S. stock ETFs.

We contend that the survival and future iterations of this model over the medium term (3-5 years) hinge on three critical factors:

1. A sustained reduction in Bitcoin's volatility;

2. The maintenance of U.S. dollar liquidity growth at rates consistent with pre-2008 averages;

3. Bitcoin's price exhibiting consistent annual growth, regardless of the percentage increase.

Importantly, several key developments have already occurred:

1. Bitcoin’s volatility is nearing historical lows;

2. Excluding arbitrage factors, the total market cap of Bitcoin through ETFs (including GBTC) and MicroStrategy's holdings has exceeded $90 billion. This total corresponds with the current average daily spot trading volume (approximately $100 billion during peak bullish market conditions), demonstrating sufficient market control over Bitcoin’s supply and demand dynamic;

3. BlackRock possesses, and surely will leverage, the capacity to ensure MicroStrategy’s equity refinancing, actively pushing MSTR to utilize capital finance tools to stabilize Bitcoin’s volatility.

In summary, this infinite self-reinforcing mechanism is set to emerge amidst the dawn of expanded dollar liquidity over the next two to three years, and it seems only a matter of time before the total value of Bitcoin held under the BlackRock umbrella surpasses that of gold ETFs.

Finally, I would like to briefly outline the indicators that will signal a turning point in the current funding structure, primarily through a reverse deduction of the previously discussed core conditions:

1. An increase in Bitcoin's volatility, particularly concerning downward movement;

2. A noticeable shift in U.S. dollar liquidity;

3. Difficulties in MSTR’s equity refinancing, particularly failing to meet the planned $42 billion refinancing target over the next three years. Based on this logic, we predict that MSTR’s stock price will peak ahead of Bitcoin’s price.

Secondly, let’s delve into our projections for Bitcoin over the next five years.

With the preceding points in mind, we believe that the key focal areas regarding Bitcoin's future trajectory over the next five years include:

1. We find ourselves at a genuine liquidity pivot for the U.S. dollar. The rightward drift of U.S. governance under the Republican party will likely ensure that dollar liquidity remains more accommodating than previously anticipated;

2. Evaluating current trading volumes of Bitcoin and MSTR’s stock performance indicates that we are still in the early stages regarding the accommodating capacity of funds, meaning we have not yet reached a critical turning point;

3. The recent epoch of high volatility has resulted in considerable turnover, indicating that the market is in a significant transitional phase.

Thus, we firmly believe that a new wave of asset cycles for Bitcoin is just beginning. In terms of asset management, we plan to utilize our insights and transactional signals to guide those looking to benefit from the forthcoming long-term, low-volatility upward journey, much akin to the experience of holding core investing assets in U.S. stocks.