On Monday, the U.S. government managed to avert a shutdown crisis, causing the dollar index to maintain its position near a two-year high, finally closing up by 0.24% at 108.08. In the bond market, yields surged across the board, with the two-year Treasury yield closing at 4.342% and the ten-year yield at 4.593%. The major U.S. stock indices all recorded gains, with the Dow Jones increasing by 0.16%, the S&P 500 up by 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rising by 0.98%.

The dollar index rose by 0.4%, hovering around its two-year peak, which significantly impacted gold prices negatively. A stronger dollar diminishes the allure of gold for holders of other currencies, effectively stifling demand. Additionally, the yield on ten-year U.S. Treasuries hit a six-month high, further amplifying the downward pressure on gold. This trend can be attributed primarily to market expectations of U.S. economic resilience and their interpretation of the Federal Reserve's future monetary policies.

Despite the Fed's recent decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, signals pointing to a reduced number of future cuts alongside a slew of robust economic data have strengthened market confidence in the U.S. economy. For instance, significant increases in November's core durable goods orders and a rebound in new home sales bolster the narrative of sustained economic growth, leading to heightened interest rate expectations. The prevailing market sentiment suggests an ongoing reassessment of the Federal Reserve's recent meeting outcomes and the anticipated rate path into 2025, with a potential pause on further rate cuts expected as early as January or March.

Supporting the dollar was a series of strong economic indicators, reinforcing the bearish outlook for gold. The notable growth in core durable goods orders reflected robust business investments, while new home sales bounced back after disruptions due to extreme weather, further illustrating the underlying resilience of the U.S. economy as the year wraps up. These data points not only back the Fed's predictions for fewer rate cuts but also boost confidence in economic robustness.

However, not all economic indicators painted a rosy picture. The consumer confidence index saw a decline in December, attributed partly to worries that tariffs might push living costs higher. Plans for imposing or significantly raising tariffs on imported goods could potentially hinder economic growth dynamics next year, escalating economic uncertainty. Although such uncertainty could traditionally support gold prices, its effect is currently overshadowed by the strength of the dollar and rising rate expectations.

It is noteworthy that despite the downturn in consumer confidence, optimism regarding the labor market remains intact, indicating that consumer spending may still have a solid foundation. Strong consumer spending has historically acted as a crucial driving force behind U.S. economic growth, aligning with the Fed's assessments of economic robustness.

Geopolitical risks continue to loom; however, their influence on gold prices appears muted at this juncture. Typically, heightened geopolitical tensions elevate demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Nonetheless, the current strong dollar and interest rate expectations are capping this flight to safety.

In light of these developments, gold finds itself in a policy slowdown period, although the technical indicators present favorable momentum for bullish positions in the short term. Traders are advised to monitor support levels on the hourly upward trend line as any stabilization could signal a buying opportunity.

Turning to crude oil, Middle Eastern geopolitical risks have remained a significant factor shaping the oil market. Any escalation in military actions or regional conflict could disrupt oil supplies and consequently elevate prices. However, the market currently exhibits low trading volumes, which limits the immediate impact of these geopolitical tensions.

With the dollar index remaining high, this poses unfavorable conditions for dollar-denominated crude oil prices. A strong dollar tends to suppress demand for oil, leading to price declines. Investors need to keep a close watch on movements in the dollar index to ascertain if it will continue to reach new heights, which could further pressure oil prices.

In December, a surprise decline in the U.S. consumer confidence index raised concerns that the economy might be experiencing some level of slowdown. A drop in consumer confidence could influence oil demand negatively, though the extent of this impact remains ambiguous amid contradictory economic data.

The recent interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada reflects the global trend of economic deceleration, potentially suppressing oil demand. Nevertheless, the Bank's Governor indicated that future cuts would proceed incrementally, highlighting that confidence in the economy is not entirely lost.

Analysts estimate a staggering 91.4% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain rates in January, indicating a low chance of further cuts. This suggests ongoing concerns regarding inflation, signaling a possible tightening of future monetary policy. A restrictive monetary policy environment generally deterred increases in commodity prices, including crude oil.

Upcoming EIA inventory data, scheduled for release this Thursday, will be pivotal in affecting short-term oil price trajectories. The market currently holds divided expectations regarding inventory levels, hinting at potential price fluctuations. Given the holiday season’s typically sparse trading activities, unexpected inventory data may significantly amplify market reactions.

Beyond Middle Eastern tensions, other geopolitical factors may sway the oil market. Saudi Arabia's process of joining BRICS is still not finalized, which could have long-term implications for global energy markets, though its short-term influence appears limited. Political uncertainty in South Korea may also impact market sentiment, albeit indirectly affecting oil dynamics. Furthermore, NATO Secretary General's predictions indicate that the U.S. may press European allies to enhance defense spending, which could indirectly affect global energy demand, though again with limited short-term repercussions.

In summary, as the Christmas holiday approaches, market trading is expected to remain subdued, with investors focusing on nearby lower support zones in the oil market for potential buying opportunities following a dip in prices.